froguser
0x08945ab0434cc8574c5b1588ebe5ef061f34d819
- Realised P&L
- $-487.42
- Volume
- $473.0k
- Markets traded
- 309
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded309
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.308Will Trump say "Israel" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$885.11at 0.347US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$749.99at 0.344Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$690.00at 0.540Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
- +$610.00at 0.228Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 13:37 | Will Trump say "Police Officer" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 08-13 13:37 | Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.36 | $25.20 |
| 08-12 03:28 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $480.00 |
| 08-12 03:28 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $90.00 |
| 08-11 22:31 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.56 |
| 08-10 17:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $110.15 |
| 08-07 16:40 | Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5) | BUY | 0.55 | $36.30 |
| 08-06 17:13 | Spread: Portland Fire (-2.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $468.00 |
| 08-05 23:52 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $520.00 |
| 08-05 03:51 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.197 | $197.00 |
| 08-03 22:35 | Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $539.99 |
| 08-02 17:21 | Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) | BUY | 0.59 | $442.50 |
| 08-02 17:17 | Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) | SELL | 0.5 | $378.28 |
| 08-02 17:16 | Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $550.00 |
| 08-02 17:16 | Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) | BUY | 0.49 | $51.45 |