PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

froguser

0x08945ab0434cc8574c5b1588ebe5ef061f34d819

Realised P&L
$-487.42
Volume
$473.0k
Markets traded
309
Open portfolio
$3.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded309
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.1380.439$1.5k+$1.0k
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.4630.825$1.4k+$633.76
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0630.056$277.50−$37.50
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0400.050$250.00+$50.00
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1340.161$240.75+$39.75
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6100.080$24.00−$159.00
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.5600.085$21.25−$118.74
Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5500.090$9.00−$46.00
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.1400.095$4.75−$2.25
Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York? · No0.3600.000$0.00−$180.00
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference? · No0.3070.000$0.00−$88.10
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? · Yes0.1020.000$0.00−$38.09
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? · No0.8500.000$0.00−$2.1k
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? · Yes0.3770.000$0.00−$113.20
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00−$190.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-13 13:37Will Trump say "Police Officer" during remarks in New York?BUY0.78$78.00
08-13 13:37Will Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?BUY0.36$25.20
08-12 03:28US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.24$480.00
08-12 03:28US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?SELL0.05$90.00
08-11 22:31Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?BUY0.22$3.56
08-10 17:20US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?SELL0.014$110.15
08-07 16:40Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)BUY0.55$36.30
08-06 17:13Spread: Portland Fire (-2.5)BUY0.52$468.00
08-05 23:52Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5)BUY0.52$520.00
08-05 03:51Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?BUY0.197$197.00
08-03 22:35Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5)BUY0.54$539.99
08-02 17:21Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5)BUY0.59$442.50
08-02 17:17Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)SELL0.5$378.28
08-02 17:16Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)BUY0.5$550.00
08-02 17:16Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)BUY0.49$51.45