sincereCoati3
0x085d1ce41c90d96e505d5e0209cbd542113fd6a6
- Realised P&L
- $-884.48
- Volume
- $318.9k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $315.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.051 | $199.69 | +$134.15 |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $95.65 | −$1.1k |
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $10.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $9.97 | −$30.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.94at 0.003Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.87at 0.003Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.07at 0.960Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-4.25at 0.640Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
- +$-23.86at 0.870Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 19:13 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.20 |
| 08-09 13:15 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.005 | $121.58 |
| 07-26 13:31 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.005 | $85.40 |
| 06-13 21:15 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $55.12 |
| 06-13 21:14 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $60.00 |
| 06-12 21:33 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $23.22 |
| 06-12 21:32 | Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $24.62 |
| 06-12 20:40 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $71.44 |
| 06-12 20:38 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $78.09 |
| 06-10 22:04 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.48 |
| 06-09 21:20 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $112.90 |
| 05-29 21:48 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $7.98 |
| 05-28 20:49 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $159.56 |
| 04-30 23:28 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.012 | $5.88 |
| 04-24 19:36 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.58 |