topbig
0x084d2c1db4f5862ae4015dc7f8f8695d6b38c66a
- Realised P&L
- $367.11
- Volume
- $84.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $549.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.005 | $385.00 | −$175.00 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.086 | $59.85 | +$24.15 |
| Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.110 | $41.80 | −$33.43 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.055 | $33.00 | −$105.00 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.060 | $30.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$391.97at 0.510Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
- +$295.98at 0.630Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
- +$250.00at 0.500Hawks vs. Spurs
- +$224.99at 0.550Raptors vs. Hornets
- +$204.00at 0.490Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-02 18:14 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? | BUY | 0.46 | $230.00 |
| 01-28 18:07 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $90.00 |
| 01-02 02:44 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $560.00 |
| 12-16 04:57 | Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1960913706 | $38.63 |
| 12-05 05:04 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $261.40 |
| 11-26 21:40 | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.49 | $196.00 |