PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

legspread

0x084525431e4d27a8d8529fbdcd471c6ceacfc4ed

Realised P&L
$-1.2k
Volume
$138.5k
Markets traded
233
Open portfolio
$295.00

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded233
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No0.9400.975$93.55+$3.31
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · No0.9210.930$49.32+$0.48
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? · Yes0.3910.615$21.59+$7.86
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? · Yes0.1210.055$21.22$25.64
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No0.9730.958$20.34$0.33
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? · No0.8740.848$19.49$0.61
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? · Yes0.0510.048$18.61$1.44
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2180.080$18.43$31.77
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes0.0800.055$17.16$7.80
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0430.025$6.98$5.40
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.0490.029$6.20$4.05
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes0.0340.018$1.26$1.19
NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes0.0460.015$0.71$1.55
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.065$0.13$0.01
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? · No0.5200.000$0.00$30.39

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-25 22:15US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?BUY0.8$24.00
05-25 22:15US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY0.46$46.00
05-25 22:15US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY0.68$61.20
05-16 21:59Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.518$103.60
05-16 21:46Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.933$279.90
05-16 21:43Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.776$155.20
04-28 12:51Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?SELL0.0124206674$23.62
04-28 12:51Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?SELL0.021$42.00
04-28 12:51Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?SELL0.36$72.00
04-28 12:51MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?SELL0.94$1.9k
04-27 22:19Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?SELL0.033$6.63
04-27 22:19Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?SELL0.959$4.79
04-16 19:06Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?BUY0.9825393333$58.85
04-16 19:06Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?BUY0.982$49.01
04-16 19:06Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?BUY0.984$49.12