legspread
0x084525431e4d27a8d8529fbdcd471c6ceacfc4ed
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $138.5k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $295.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$361.48at 0.050Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$358.58at 0.089Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
- +$322.89at 0.007Will June Squibb win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$312.24at 0.273Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$239.92at 0.105Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-25 22:15 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 05-25 22:15 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 05-25 22:15 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.68 | $61.20 |
| 05-16 21:59 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.518 | $103.60 |
| 05-16 21:46 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $279.90 |
| 05-16 21:43 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.776 | $155.20 |
| 04-28 12:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | SELL | 0.0124206674 | $23.62 |
| 04-28 12:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? | SELL | 0.021 | $42.00 |
| 04-28 12:51 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? | SELL | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 04-28 12:51 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.9k |
| 04-27 22:19 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $6.63 |
| 04-27 22:19 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.959 | $4.79 |
| 04-16 19:06 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9825393333 | $58.85 |
| 04-16 19:06 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $49.01 |
| 04-16 19:06 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $49.12 |