0x083622f3db6302884659c9dd2e7d2fddf6a492f1
0x083622f3db6302884659c9dd2e7d2fddf6a492f1
- Realised P&L
- $-248.90
- Volume
- $17.3k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $303.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.520 | 0.635 | $163.71 | +$29.65 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.886 | 1.000 | $110.53 | +$12.51 |
| Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.145 | $29.52 | −$8.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$186.70at 0.699Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$133.62at 0.694Will Italy win?
- +$115.16at 0.621Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
- +$78.68at 0.812Will Scotland win?
- +$64.22at 0.559Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 08:45 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.886409867 | $98.02 |
| 09-25 08:57 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.1866717124 | $38.00 |
| 09-21 10:02 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | BUY | 0.8564261998 | $118.04 |
| 09-16 18:34 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9687024837 | $114.85 |
| 04-24 01:54 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.6599999958 | $24.42 |
| 04-24 01:48 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 04-19 16:28 | Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | BUY | 0.4279999888 | $8.70 |
| 04-19 16:28 | Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | SELL | 0.034 | $2.80 |
| 04-17 16:00 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.0589114811 | $19.90 |
| 04-17 15:59 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 04-17 13:20 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $93.67 |
| 04-17 13:19 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $281.03 |
| 04-17 13:18 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.8000297788 | $199.00 |
| 04-17 13:17 | Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | BUY | 0.6039392989 | $49.75 |
| 04-17 13:16 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.993 | $629.74 |