WillLin
0x08318851b0c546e3cbaa78fca8a50c1985f6dce1
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $1.21M
- Markets traded
- 473
- Open portfolio
- $900.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded473
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$353.33at 0.060US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$308.49at 0.041Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$210.29at 0.292Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$187.26at 0.006Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$161.83at 0.509Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 09:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.03 | $34.11 |
| 09-19 09:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.058 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 10:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 17? | BUY | 0.0143770662 | $34.28 |
| 09-16 10:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? | BUY | 0.0369791068 | $200.00 |
| 08-12 10:16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.018 | $94.54 |
| 08-09 16:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 11? | BUY | 0.0316066038 | $46.38 |
| 08-07 09:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.0129949734 | $42.59 |
| 08-07 09:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.0340707942 | $50.00 |
| 08-02 09:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 8? | BUY | 0.0456123867 | $14.48 |
| 08-02 09:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 8? | BUY | 0.1581395335 | $80.00 |
| 07-29 09:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2119999983 | $94.92 |
| 07-26 12:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | BUY | 0.0699999896 | $5.87 |
| 07-26 12:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 1? | BUY | 0.0103448277 | $2.00 |
| 07-26 12:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 1? | BUY | 0.0280000003 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 12:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 1? | BUY | 0.055822864 | $20.00 |