amir-init
0x0821f5dd8a41f1c6c56ddc6f7cb4e8b361dd41fb
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $172.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-62.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.450 | $40.87 | +$5.87 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.856 | 0.929 | $30.40 | +$2.40 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.835 | $19.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.485 | $19.45 | −$0.55 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.760 | $19.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.290 | $18.13 | −$1.88 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.150 | $15.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.405 | $9.88 | −$0.12 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · No | 0.849 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.81at 0.782Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?
- +$17.64at 0.831Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?
- +$17.38at 0.890Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?
- +$8.32at 0.887Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?
- +$5.93at 0.632US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:59 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 15:50 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 15:50 | Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 15:25 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 15:23 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4987531172 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 15:08 | Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 09-22 14:53 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 14:46 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999976 | $25.00 |
| 09-13 14:39 | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9899999903 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 14:29 | Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9599999693 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 14:28 | Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.96 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 14:25 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.8899999648 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 14:24 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9572368396 | $30.00 |
| 09-13 14:20 | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 14:18 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.8909952421 | $10.00 |