ryan63
0x08210ea68f7e113b200d68d82d6e887514cf1cb8
- Realised P&L
- $-46.90
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $6.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.425 | $6.92 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.04at 0.999Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$0.65at 0.978OpenAI browser in July?
- +$0.43at 0.989Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
- +$0.21at 0.994Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
- +$0.20at 0.988Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:47 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.47 |
| 01-30 12:41 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.9978217822 | $11.59 |
| 01-30 12:29 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9989999675 | $8.71 |
| 01-30 12:26 | Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.87 |
| 01-30 11:57 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $42.23 |
| 12-30 17:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.38 |
| 12-30 17:08 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.58 |
| 12-30 15:00 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.15 |
| 12-30 13:01 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.05 |
| 12-30 00:12 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999999 | $14.72 |
| 12-30 00:05 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.06 |
| 12-29 21:42 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.13 |
| 10-30 21:33 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.68 |
| 10-30 18:35 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.28 |
| 10-30 17:31 | Ethereum all time high by October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.22 |