ngfn176
0x07e5627a4bf77d2c0d03e3770821cba2c6f24b14
- Realised P&L
- $-4.16
- Volume
- $9.1k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $233.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? · No | 0.886 | 0.915 | $82.41 | +$2.59 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.899 | 0.977 | $79.87 | +$6.38 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? · No | 0.948 | 0.989 | $70.40 | +$2.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 17? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.125 | $0.76 | −$0.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 15? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 7? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.29at 0.191Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 12PM ET
- +$9.43at 0.651Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on October 3?
- +$6.97at 0.647Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on October 2?
- +$5.80at 0.078Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 9AM ET
- +$5.41at 0.960Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 19:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.967 | $1.26 |
| 10-16 19:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.959 | $2.45 |
| 10-16 18:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.949 | $3.09 |
| 10-16 17:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.965 | $29.27 |
| 10-16 17:27 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 17? | BUY | 0.1899999868 | $1.15 |
| 10-16 17:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9379999988 | $44.99 |
| 10-16 15:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.999 | $71.95 |
| 10-16 15:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.28 |
| 10-16 14:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9849999994 | $74.19 |
| 10-16 13:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9719999871 | $16.52 |
| 10-16 12:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9718386186 | $30.11 |
| 10-16 12:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9739999862 | $27.44 |
| 10-16 12:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16? | SELL | 0.9636028636 | $12.79 |
| 10-16 10:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9579999973 | $12.72 |
| 10-16 03:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9719075539 | $73.53 |