0x07cdb43d2d7501a926390ac0cf8c6060e251fbc0
0x07cdb43d2d7501a926390ac0cf8c6060e251fbc0
- Realised P&L
- $-40.45
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $24.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.585 | $10.21 | −$0.79 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.590 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.570 | $2.76 | −$0.24 |
| Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.635 | $1.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.005 | $0.06 | −$6.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.81at 0.620Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$8.77at 0.749Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$7.20at 0.580Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
- +$6.76at 0.674Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$5.17at 0.682Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 22:16 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-28 22:15 | Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31? | BUY | 0.6199999587 | $3.00 |
| 09-28 22:00 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.5899999841 | $10.00 |
| 09-28 21:59 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999805 | $11.00 |
| 09-25 15:28 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999809 | $7.00 |
| 07-07 20:34 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.3799999949 | $34.18 |
| 07-07 15:35 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.739999996 | $25.91 |
| 07-06 20:53 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.919999977 | $24.00 |
| 07-05 21:42 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.6099999867 | $39.85 |
| 05-23 22:59 | Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | SELL | 0.49 | $11.59 |
| 05-23 20:49 | Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | BUY | 0.93 | $22.00 |
| 05-03 18:45 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-03? | BUY | 0.62 | $3.29 |
| 05-03 18:45 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.07 |
| 05-03 18:09 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? | BUY | 0.4299999941 | $15.92 |
| 04-30 19:57 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |