fgrere
0x078c98aa26642c1c1812f6e4bb3f6628e3e686af
- Realised P&L
- $-8.68
- Volume
- $174.35
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $3.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.295 | $1.47 | −$1.38 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.110 | $0.70 | −$1.79 |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.484 | 0.170 | $0.70 | −$1.30 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.350 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.034 | $0.17 | −$2.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.04at 0.959Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.03at 0.993Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?
- +$0.01at 0.988Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?
- +$0.01at 0.996Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?
- +$0.00at 0.997Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 10:41 | Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9589999722 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 10:40 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 10:40 | Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 10:40 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.25 |
| 01-07 09:24 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 01-07 09:24 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 01-07 09:24 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 09:24 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.98 |
| 12-29 09:23 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 12-29 09:22 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $10.99 |
| 12-29 09:21 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.00 |
| 12-29 09:20 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.99 |
| 12-29 08:45 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.00 |
| 12-29 08:45 | Trump out as President in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.99 |
| 12-29 08:41 | Trump out as President in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999171 | $11.00 |