StefLux
0x074bf7b1b6749ed30f6983af4b68f91dd4485663
- Realised P&L
- $157.83
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $95.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$281.91at 0.210Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$129.75at 0.355Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$54.07at 0.270US-China trade deal before June?
- +$50.36at 0.092Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$45.92at 0.102Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 16:22 | Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0275515164 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 16:15 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0252154954 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 21:41 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.033 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 10:28 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.0266406656 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 10:38 | Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0296556709 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:12 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:05 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | SELL | 0.9975 | $51.15 |
| 07-15 20:19 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.0974999829 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 21:35 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0239999977 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 19:59 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0209999958 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 19:59 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.015 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 18:08 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1789999763 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 18:07 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.999 | $55.49 |
| 07-07 17:46 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 17:27 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0759999867 | $5.00 |