PolyBot

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Traders

StefLux

0x074bf7b1b6749ed30f6983af4b68f91dd4485663

Realised P&L
$157.83
Volume
$15.0k
Markets traded
47
Open portfolio
$95.64

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded47
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration27.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0150.080$26.50+$21.50
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes0.0950.032$18.32−$36.68
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1140.090$15.88−$4.12
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? · Yes0.0280.035$12.88+$2.88
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0210.049$11.55+$6.55
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2150.154$7.19−$2.81
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0330.011$3.33−$6.67
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00−$10.00
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1070.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0630.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 16:22Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?BUY0.0275515164$10.00
09-14 16:15Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?BUY0.0252154954$5.00
08-07 21:41Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.033$10.00
08-06 10:28Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?BUY0.0266406656$5.00
08-01 10:38Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?BUY0.0296556709$5.00
07-19 21:12Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.2699999681$5.00
07-15 21:05Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?SELL0.9975$51.15
07-15 20:19Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?BUY0.0974999829$5.00
07-09 21:35Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0239999977$10.00
07-07 19:59Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.0209999958$5.00
07-07 19:59Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.015$5.00
07-07 18:08Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1789999763$5.00
07-07 18:07Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?SELL0.999$55.49
07-07 17:46Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.0899999845$5.00
07-07 17:27Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0759999867$5.00