0x073603956C4B75AF676e427C5046EAfD973B0bD2-1768451733179
0x073603956c4b75af676e427c5046eafd973b0bd2
- Realised P&L
- $-215.19
- Volume
- $17.4k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $17.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? · No | 0.930 | 0.941 | $15.17 | +$0.17 |
| Makina FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.986 | 0.935 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · No | 0.930 | 0.721 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.085 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.88 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$133.71 |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 26? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on February 23? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.98at 0.807Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?
- +$17.00at 0.868Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
- +$14.10at 0.780Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?
- +$11.71at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
- +$9.26at 0.916Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:56 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9299999975 | $15.00 |
| 09-20 08:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.669999979 | $17.88 |
| 09-14 06:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.21 | $18.90 |
| 09-03 14:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999987 | $54.91 |
| 09-01 10:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $57.53 |
| 08-29 09:06 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999996 | $79.45 |
| 08-29 09:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.983 | $81.50 |
| 08-26 12:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.878999999 | $72.88 |
| 08-25 03:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.555 | $75.58 |
| 08-21 23:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7181611104 | $97.80 |
| 08-12 13:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | BUY | 0.92 | $133.71 |
| 08-12 13:27 | Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.931 | $0.98 |
| 08-12 13:27 | Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.10 |
| 07-25 03:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | BUY | 0.8599999992 | $111.15 |
| 07-25 03:22 | Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31? | SELL | 0.5458667496 | $105.36 |