6862584
0x06e8b7d7474f561130533455b0a9bdcc56339c25
- Realised P&L
- $-25.1k
- Volume
- $962.7k
- Markets traded
- 566
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded566
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 28? · No | 0.901 | 1.000 | $3.0k | +$291.23 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? · No | 0.766 | 0.905 | $1.1k | +$168.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 29? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $457.38 | +$2.42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 28? · No | 0.900 | 1.000 | $199.90 | +$19.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 19? · Yes | 0.828 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$86.95 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.749Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12?
- +$1.0kat 0.947Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?
- +$980.43at 0.877Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?
- +$953.64at 0.817Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?
- +$800.01at 0.920Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 14:49 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.94 | $454.96 |
| 09-28 14:43 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.63 | $12.60 |
| 09-28 14:42 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 09-28 14:42 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.64 | $13.44 |
| 09-28 14:42 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 09-28 14:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 09-28 03:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.7254880116 | $59.91 |
| 09-28 00:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.6366203584 | $12.00 |
| 09-28 00:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.6025629816 | $27.00 |
| 09-27 09:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.57 | $25.62 |
| 09-27 09:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 09-27 09:09 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.54 | $16.20 |
| 09-27 08:25 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.7128712808 | $20.00 |
| 09-27 08:18 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 09-27 08:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.6795899132 | $22.00 |