0x06bf4b5dec92a06071259e08afdf80dcaaac5177
0x06bf4b5dec92a06071259e08afdf80dcaaac5177
- Realised P&L
- $-12.05
- Volume
- $161.89
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $4.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.835 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.625 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? · No | 0.550 | 0.575 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.425 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?
- +$1.44at 0.530Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.25at 0.590Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 18:53 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 08:01 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:57 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:48 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:48 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:43 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:42 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 01:09 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 15:00 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:00 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:00 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in September? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:59 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7099999549 | $1.26 |
| 09-11 22:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |