0x069e6e17860a1ca21bb3f899ce9986780cf5863c
- Realised P&L
- $234.09
- Volume
- $38.5k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $330.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.036 | $160.78 | −$22.92 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.030 | $50.57 | −$15.61 |
| Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.110 | $40.41 | +$7.35 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.165 | $30.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.032 | $28.87 | +$0.90 |
| Will Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $19.56 | −$4.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$164.35at 0.081Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
- +$128.61at 0.309Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
- +$104.46at 0.246Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
- +$44.72at 0.044Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?
- +$29.73at 0.180Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 06:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0409992298 | $131.75 |
| 08-02 06:10 | Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $112.32 |
| 08-02 06:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4? | SELL | 0.0471597754 | $39.30 |
| 07-31 15:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.0699999989 | $58.34 |
| 07-31 08:56 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $8.00 |
| 07-31 08:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.01409486 | $1.72 |
| 07-31 08:52 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.019 | $1.71 |
| 07-31 08:51 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.0319511014 | $13.07 |
| 07-31 08:48 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.0495535714 | $11.10 |
| 07-31 08:46 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.0516412492 | $28.79 |
| 07-30 07:41 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0839031713 | $67.45 |
| 07-30 07:39 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $73.95 |
| 07-30 01:35 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0579008721 | $34.67 |
| 07-29 05:16 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $37.24 |
| 07-28 16:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0418394003 | $29.47 |