0x068671db589b288c95b054f70a82a47be57e20ad
0x068671db589b288c95b054f70a82a47be57e20ad
- Realised P&L
- $-11.70
- Volume
- $180.01
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $0.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.165 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.055 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.055 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
- +$2.20at 0.319Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2659999644 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:50 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:49 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:44 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:54 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 13:38 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:10 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 07:56 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 20:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 10:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 17:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |