Avalah
0x0642d922d59891626e035d210779f51d4ad5e159
- Realised P&L
- $-113.03
- Volume
- $69.0k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.965 | $1.9k | +$938.29 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.035 | $71.71 | −$938.29 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.975 | $18.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 8? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $11.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? · No | 0.973 | 1.000 | $9.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.674 | 1.000 | $7.42 | +$2.42 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · No | 0.795 | 1.000 | $6.29 | +$1.29 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? · No | 0.840 | 1.000 | $5.95 | +$0.95 |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET · Down | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.81at 0.270India vs. Sri Lanka - 3rd Cricket ODI Match
- +$4.26at 0.540US inflation >0.1% from June to July 2024?
- +$2.51at 0.909Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?
- +$1.16at 0.858Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?
- +$1.01at 0.998Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 17:17 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.045999957 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 14:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9949999995 | $119.00 |
| 07-08 14:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7949999897 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 14:11 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.673999969 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 13:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9979999991 | $1.0k |
| 06-25 13:40 | Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 13:38 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.00 |
| 05-07 11:20 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | BUY | 0.9729998956 | $9.00 |
| 05-07 11:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 11:03 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.5k |
| 05-07 11:03 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.5k |
| 05-07 11:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $11.00 |
| 05-04 21:13 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.5k |
| 05-04 21:13 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.5k |
| 01-18 12:53 | Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | BUY | 0.002 | $109.54 |