srv123
0x063a2e455aa064d08a6409eac85bcc5220a527b9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $138.4k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $404.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? · Yes | 0.372 | 0.610 | $178.99 | +$69.69 |
| Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.415 | $141.10 | −$11.90 |
| Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? · Yes | 0.917 | 0.895 | $83.92 | −$2.08 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 10, 2026? · No | 0.836 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$433.69 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.69 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 2? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.07 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$209.92at 0.723Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$206.39at 0.991Will MrBeast's next video get between 50–55 million views on day 1?
- +$171.58at 0.633Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?
- +$166.81at 0.528Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs?
- +$148.72at 0.156Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 08:47 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? | BUY | 0.4165036367 | $73.16 |
| 10-15 08:37 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.45 | $95.40 |
| 10-15 08:35 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.45 | $57.60 |
| 09-16 03:19 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.11 | $110.00 |
| 09-01 05:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $790.82 |
| 08-21 01:48 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $80.52 |
| 08-18 13:18 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.095 | $10.77 |
| 08-18 13:15 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? | BUY | 0.3122231041 | $35.41 |
| 08-18 13:13 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.094 | $10.65 |
| 08-18 00:46 | Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? | BUY | 0.92 | $102.12 |
| 08-18 00:45 | Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? | BUY | 0.91 | $39.13 |
| 08-17 13:08 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $42.15 |
| 08-17 13:08 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $65.90 |
| 08-17 00:31 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $53.98 |
| 08-17 00:30 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $24.91 |