0x06393096f47a930F63f6a045A85A5Daec40E312f-1767661849922
0x06393096f47a930f63f6a045a85a5daec40e312f
- Realised P&L
- $202.44
- Volume
- $173.7k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $19.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.514Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$689.02at 0.850Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$215.70at 0.606Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$190.23at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$118.41at 0.828US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 17:02 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.067 | $25.44 |
| 06-11 18:11 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 05-29 18:56 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.01 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 18:53 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | SELL | 0.07 | $5.38 |
| 05-29 18:52 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 18:50 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | SELL | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 05-29 18:39 | Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.45 | $45.00 |
| 05-29 18:39 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0657093835 | $59.13 |
| 05-27 13:02 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.2338510276 | $43.92 |
| 05-27 11:56 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 05-25 13:37 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $35.50 |
| 05-20 15:50 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.3988831272 | $100.00 |
| 04-13 20:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999941 | $17.61 |
| 04-13 16:30 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.57 | $23.47 |
| 04-12 19:12 | Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $90.00 |