Apolinariia
0x0638f2742968cd6bab462e173bc30608f036a2e4
- Realised P&L
- $869.94
- Volume
- $30.7k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $14.73
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.781 | 0.910 | $5.71 | +$0.81 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.950 | $2.04 | +$0.17 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.961 | $1.91 | +$0.18 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.935 | $1.80 | +$0.22 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.978 | $1.79 | +$0.20 |
| Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.680 | $1.48 | −$0.50 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$653.50at 0.771Nuggets vs. Thunder
- +$226.16at 0.816Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?
- +$1.43at 0.560Orioles vs. Red Sox
- +$1.29at 0.700Heat vs. Bulls
- +$1.26at 0.450Will Fulham win on 2025-02-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 09:03 | Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999908 | $1.98 |
| 09-21 12:01 | DAX (DAX) Up or Down on September 21? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.49 |
| 09-11 10:27 | Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999524 | $1.48 |
| 09-11 10:26 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $0.58 |
| 08-27 14:40 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699995906 | $1.87 |
| 08-18 11:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999452 | $1.84 |
| 08-07 15:34 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.74 |
| 08-01 11:42 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.73 |
| 07-25 11:35 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July? | BUY | 0.8599999807 | $1.78 |
| 07-18 10:41 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on July 20? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.85 |
| 07-11 12:06 | Evo Morales arrested by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.98 |
| 07-03 13:35 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.829999585 | $1.58 |
| 06-26 13:29 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | BUY | 0.7699999587 | $1.68 |
| 06-19 13:57 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999253 | $1.67 |
| 06-13 12:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | BUY | 0.8539999803 | $1.73 |