Mancha
0x06160312b74b3978c24ab0293ab26a15702aea27
- Realised P&L
- $-49.20
- Volume
- $41.8k
- Markets traded
- 583
- Open portfolio
- $73.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded583
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$180.61at 0.356Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$152.60at 0.073Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 29?
- +$98.00at 0.010Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?
- +$76.87at 0.163Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?
- +$70.23at 0.054Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on July 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 20:06 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 20:06 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.0901934299 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 20:06 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on August 8? | BUY | 0.0119664461 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 19:56 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 09:47 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 20:57 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 20:55 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 20:53 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 20:51 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 15:44 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:20 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 14:05 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0115982371 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 14:05 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 11:23 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0956937799 | $1.00 |