Mancha
0x06160312b74b3978c24ab0293ab26a15702aea27
- Realised P&L
- $-130.94
- Volume
- $43.6k
- Markets traded
- 675
- Open portfolio
- $67.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded675
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$180.62at 0.356Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$152.04at 0.076Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 29?
- +$97.95at 0.010Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 14?
- +$76.25at 0.170Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?
- +$70.08at 0.056Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on July 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 10:29 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 15? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 09-12 20:34 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 6? | BUY | 0.0363108206 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 20:15 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 20:15 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.0711680455 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 09:49 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 15:27 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 30? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-26 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 26? | BUY | 0.2165354 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 08:39 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 12:12 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 12:04 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 11:49 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.1809522586 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 11:33 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 11:30 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |