geomint
0x05f23c0134034a9410482aa3000025fdbec195de
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $187.5k
- Markets traded
- 192
- Open portfolio
- $652.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded192
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Sri Lanka | 0.790 | 0.490 | $409.15 | −$250.50 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.175 | $169.53 | −$547.24 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.591 | 1.000 | $61.00 | +$24.95 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.636 | 0.535 | $11.23 | −$2.13 |
| Deel IPO before 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.955 | $0.95 | +$0.20 |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.090 | $0.18 | −$0.14 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$578.60at 0.230Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?
- +$496.62at 0.380Will Trump say "Take the oil" or "Keep the oil" during events with Rutte?
- +$356.12at 0.420Will Trump say "Secretary of War" at Fort Bragg on Friday?
- +$353.55at 0.570Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?
- +$281.10at 0.262Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 01:42 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $31.08 |
| 04-11 12:48 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.73 | $30.66 |
| 04-09 14:43 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.27 | $12.42 |
| 04-09 10:50 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | SELL | 0.77 | $512.05 |
| 04-09 10:49 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | SELL | 0.77 | $555.94 |
| 04-07 15:49 | Will Trump say "Take the oil" or "Keep the oil" during events with Rutte? | BUY | 0.38 | $304.38 |
| 04-07 12:59 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.1k |
| 03-25 20:00 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-03-31? | SELL | 0.43 | $32.68 |
| 03-25 08:02 | ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka | BUY | 0.79 | $659.65 |
| 03-24 14:02 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-03-31? | BUY | 0.44 | $33.44 |
| 03-24 07:25 | Will Trump post "Bomb" or "Bomber" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.38 | $190.38 |
| 03-24 07:24 | Will Trump post "Bomb" or "Bomber" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.38 | $233.32 |
| 03-24 07:23 | Will Trump post "Bomb" or "Bomber" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.38 | $85.12 |
| 03-23 06:19 | Will Trump post "Bomb" or "Bomber" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.64 | $856.96 |
| 03-22 03:20 | Deel IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $105.85 |