PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

appley

0x05e0421b5ea0b6d22142d220a199733715b71fd7

Realised P&L
$12.94
Volume
$42.8k
Markets traded
52
Open portfolio
$60.42

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded52
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample47 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17? · Yes0.9920.993$24.82+$0.03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 17? · No0.9820.997$21.92+$0.32
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8860.935$5.91+$0.31
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9100.960$4.43+$0.23
Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9270.946$3.34+$0.07

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 04:00Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.96$5.34
07-24 02:16Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.979$3.18
06-29 06:58Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?SELL0.999$4.10
06-29 06:57Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?SELL0.84$2.54
06-29 06:57Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.958$3.19
06-29 06:57Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.98$5.67
06-29 06:57US strike on Colombia by December 31?SELL0.77$4.64
06-29 06:57Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?SELL0.86$4.42
06-29 06:57Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.73$3.24
05-14 09:50Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?BUY0.9679999985$5.00
04-20 13:59Modi out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9269999824$3.27
04-19 19:43Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?BUY0.9719999743$5.00
04-18 08:28Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?BUY0.9739999985$4.00
04-17 03:13Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.86$4.75
04-16 19:54Will Trump visit China by May 31?BUY0.8699998695$5.00