appley
0x05e0421b5ea0b6d22142d220a199733715b71fd7
- Realised P&L
- $12.94
- Volume
- $42.8k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $60.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.993 | $24.82 | +$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 17? · No | 0.982 | 0.997 | $21.92 | +$0.32 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.886 | 0.935 | $5.91 | +$0.31 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.960 | $4.43 | +$0.23 |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.946 | $3.34 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13?
- +$1.8kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12?
- +$6.92at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12?
- +$3.65at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12?
- +$3.48at 0.686Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 04:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $5.34 |
| 07-24 02:16 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.979 | $3.18 |
| 06-29 06:58 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.10 |
| 06-29 06:57 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $2.54 |
| 06-29 06:57 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.958 | $3.19 |
| 06-29 06:57 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.98 | $5.67 |
| 06-29 06:57 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $4.64 |
| 06-29 06:57 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $4.42 |
| 06-29 06:57 | Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.24 |
| 05-14 09:50 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9679999985 | $5.00 |
| 04-20 13:59 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9269999824 | $3.27 |
| 04-19 19:43 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.9719999743 | $5.00 |
| 04-18 08:28 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739999985 | $4.00 |
| 04-17 03:13 | Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.75 |
| 04-16 19:54 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.8699998695 | $5.00 |