ecologicalbehaviour
0x059fd0a47dbf42f2d723ddb5739cee6f3e6f9728
- Realised P&L
- $-122.72
- Volume
- $123.8k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $122.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $27.08 | +$0.03 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.942 | 0.981 | $24.99 | +$0.98 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.972 | 0.981 | $24.99 | +$0.22 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.959 | $24.39 | +$0.99 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? · Yes | 0.976 | 0.975 | $11.01 | −$0.01 |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $10.30 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.25at 0.640Nuggets vs. Pacers
- +$0.92at 0.520Heat vs. Hawks
- +$0.79at 0.560Warriors vs. Kings
- +$0.75at 0.570Spurs vs. Pelicans
- +$0.69at 0.590Grizzlies vs. Magic
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 14:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.05 |
| 08-30 14:05 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.998999934 | $10.31 |
| 07-23 20:10 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.5 | $9.20 |
| 07-10 12:33 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9939999845 | $11.04 |
| 07-10 12:32 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.9759999993 | $11.02 |
| 07-10 12:32 | Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.10 |
| 06-08 12:15 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.9939999694 | $21.96 |
| 05-04 10:34 | Trump out as President by May 31? | BUY | 0.991 | $24.97 |
| 03-13 13:35 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.9419999992 | $24.01 |
| 03-13 13:30 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | BUY | 0.9779999513 | $11.45 |
| 02-24 13:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.01 |
| 02-24 13:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $24.90 |
| 02-24 13:05 | US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829999995 | $10.25 |
| 02-24 13:04 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.9669999985 | $16.70 |
| 01-08 12:52 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | BUY | 0.996999997 | $26.80 |