0x0575b6f6f176fec7146f1b6e18dd8fdcb2db581c
0x0575b6f6f176fec7146f1b6e18dd8fdcb2db581c
- Realised P&L
- $3.26
- Volume
- $422.79
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $2.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.685 | 0.872 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.900 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.066 | $0.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.470 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$4.40at 0.319S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 04:06 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:06 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:04 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:15 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 06:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:41 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6849995376 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:39 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:22 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2459999788 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:09 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 08:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:10 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 15:11 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2149999903 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 07:07 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6889999097 | $1.00 |