0x05314e68872ec108815c5d0a90420342f73f8f88
- Realised P&L
- $1.45
- Volume
- $41.70
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $11.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.410 | 1.000 | $2.93 | +$1.73 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.995 | $1.86 | +$0.66 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.750 | $1.84 | +$0.64 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.895 | $1.41 | +$0.21 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.750 | $1.20 | +$0.00 |
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.425 | $1.19 | −$0.01 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.306 | $0.95 | −$0.25 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.175 | $0.50 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.27at 0.490Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.75at 0.620Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.68at 0.640US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.59at 0.670Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
- +$0.55at 0.689Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 00:38 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299999498 | $1.20 |
| 09-16 00:01 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.20 |
| 09-15 15:37 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3869998994 | $1.20 |
| 09-14 18:43 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $1.20 |
| 09-14 10:43 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.20 |
| 09-14 02:20 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999183 | $1.20 |
| 09-13 18:20 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $1.20 |
| 09-11 19:39 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.20 |
| 09-11 03:53 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.20 |
| 09-10 18:04 | Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.20 |
| 09-10 08:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.6799999547 | $1.20 |
| 09-09 22:51 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.3399999773 | $1.20 |
| 09-09 13:12 | Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.6099998373 | $1.20 |
| 09-09 02:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.20 |
| 09-08 15:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.359999928 | $1.20 |