frankxyz
0x05208f3124596026203c69d741dd07d894ef9708
- Realised P&L
- $11.2k
- Volume
- $2.56M
- Markets traded
- 408
- Open portfolio
- $58.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded408
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.956 | $34.1k | −$4.88 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.910 | 0.889 | $8.9k | −$210.09 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.986 | 0.984 | $7.9k | −$17.46 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.825 | 0.885 | $4.4k | +$299.03 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.837 | 0.935 | $3.1k | +$322.78 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.959 | 0.989 | $494.05 | +$14.99 |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yes | 0.795 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$159.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.937 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.979Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$1.5kat 0.934Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.954Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$1.1kat 0.936Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
- +$946.29at 0.948Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 22:53 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.958 | $508.97 |
| 07-07 10:08 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $275.00 |
| 07-07 07:03 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $114.00 |
| 06-04 01:41 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.9 | $450.00 |
| 06-03 13:09 | Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 05-19 23:30 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | SELL | 0.01 | $4.00 |
| 04-29 06:15 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $2.0k |
| 04-29 06:13 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.0k |
| 04-29 06:06 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.986 | $88.74 |
| 04-29 06:06 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 04-29 05:59 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.991 | $465.77 |
| 04-29 05:55 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $93.06 |
| 04-29 05:54 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $202.95 |
| 04-29 05:53 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.43 |
| 04-29 05:53 | Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.987 | $3.72 |