kran7770
0x04f3471848833fa8aa6b3b648131c8a6885963c7
- Realised P&L
- $32.10
- Volume
- $24.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $73.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.810 | $56.60 | −$1.40 |
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.685 | $12.34 | +$1.53 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.115 | $2.37 | −$4.63 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.125 | $1.95 | −$3.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.71at 0.390US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$21.31at 0.067Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$5.76at 0.859US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$5.50at 0.780Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$5.40at 0.738Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 07:53 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5999999889 | $10.81 |
| 09-27 07:53 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8299999984 | $58.00 |
| 08-21 15:22 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 15:54 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 15:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.727999995 | $15.00 |
| 06-01 10:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999728 | $7.00 |
| 06-01 10:33 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1709999721 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 10:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999952 | $26.03 |
| 05-27 18:03 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY | 0.739999997 | $15.00 |
| 05-10 13:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8586319085 | $34.99 |
| 05-09 19:06 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $8.69 |
| 05-09 18:58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 11:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $4.47 |
| 03-25 18:38 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 03-24 09:16 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7992007992 | $10.00 |