PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

kran7770

0x04f3471848833fa8aa6b3b648131c8a6885963c7

Realised P&L
$32.10
Volume
$24.4k
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$73.26

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.8300.810$56.60−$1.40
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? · Yes0.6000.685$12.34+$1.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3400.115$2.37−$4.63
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3200.125$1.95−$3.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-27 07:53Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch?BUY0.5999999889$10.81
09-27 07:53Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?BUY0.8299999984$58.00
08-21 15:22Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International PlayoffsBUY0.3799999742$5.00
07-27 15:54US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?BUY0.32$5.00
07-27 15:50Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.727999995$15.00
06-01 10:34Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3399999728$7.00
06-01 10:33Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1709999721$5.00
06-01 10:33US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY0.3899999952$26.03
05-27 18:03US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?BUY0.739999997$15.00
05-10 13:56US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?BUY0.8586319085$34.99
05-09 19:06Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.001$8.69
05-09 18:58Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.001$10.00
04-01 11:12Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETBUY0.2699999681$4.47
03-25 18:38Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?BUY0.002$10.00
03-24 09:16Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.7992007992$10.00