mebad
0x04dc6448b832e4cdb3be5007b8fc59e091431c45
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $48.7k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.145 | $2.2k | −$2.1k |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.032 | $134.86 | −$160.14 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.004 | $18.06 | −$126.94 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$750.00 |
| Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance · Brazil | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$275.00 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.85at 0.844Will France win on 2026-07-04?
- +$12.44at 0.932Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 09:16 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.0699999998 | $295.00 |
| 08-28 09:15 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.0361304692 | $145.00 |
| 08-28 09:13 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.0059712144 | $60.00 |
| 07-05 06:27 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.7 | $275.00 |
| 07-04 13:11 | Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $170.00 |
| 07-04 12:11 | Will France win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.8399999987 | $80.00 |
| 05-30 08:02 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.2849649985 | $4.2k |
| 05-30 08:01 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.0738761498 | $750.00 |
| 05-30 06:46 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.0171969072 | $80.00 |