Dash6789563
0x04d92e558a35081d8069256b4737028422f68f09
- Realised P&L
- $-12.86
- Volume
- $138.1k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $5.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? · No | 0.992 | 0.966 | $5.30 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.22at 0.920Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
- +$0.20at 0.940Will Google (GOOGL) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28?
- +$0.17at 0.962Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30?
- +$0.13at 0.969Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.968AFD deaths foul play confirmed in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 09:32 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.45 |
| 08-07 06:21 | Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? | BUY | 0.9969998776 | $6.23 |
| 08-07 06:20 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.967 | $6.20 |
| 07-23 06:33 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9629999975 | $6.18 |
| 06-07 07:57 | Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.23 |
| 05-14 09:14 | Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9689999794 | $4.00 |
| 04-09 17:07 | Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.99 |
| 04-09 17:06 | Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $5.99 |
| 03-17 08:34 | Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $6.12 |
| 03-17 08:33 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.948 | $6.11 |
| 02-25 03:07 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.953999847 | $6.16 |
| 02-25 03:06 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | SELL | 0.922 | $6.16 |
| 01-12 10:21 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $6.63 |
| 12-18 04:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 18? | BUY | 0.975 | $3.43 |
| 12-18 04:49 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of December? | SELL | 0.982 | $3.43 |