Needvacation-1769360228871
0x04cd321b2fc7e991e9fad9f735cb1a21777c2750
- Realised P&L
- $-276.41
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Markets traded
- 465
- Open portfolio
- $3.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded465
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.57at 0.170Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?
- +$10.41at 0.293Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
- +$9.52at 0.344Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
- +$9.43at 0.457Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
- +$9.36at 0.120Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 18:10 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18? | SELL | 0.026 | $0.27 |
| 10-17 18:09 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.0580023593 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:59 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:59 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:58 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.0949999981 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:58 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:58 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.0079376891 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 21:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 21:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 21:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | SELL | 0.81 | $1.62 |
| 10-04 21:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 21:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |