0x04c434203480d7a684fddd01dd96310799b3918d
0x04c434203480d7a684fddd01dd96310799b3918d
- Realised P&L
- $9.51
- Volume
- $207.79
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $73.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? · No | 0.941 | 0.910 | $15.32 | −$0.52 |
| Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 18 million views this week? · No | 0.955 | 0.935 | $13.57 | −$0.29 |
| Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week? · No | 0.958 | 0.935 | $13.52 | −$0.34 |
| Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? · Yes | 0.942 | 0.880 | $11.10 | −$0.78 |
| Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.916 | 0.915 | $9.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will "Best of the Best" be the top global Netflix movie this week? · No | 0.935 | 0.895 | $3.79 | −$0.17 |
| Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.980 | $2.37 | +$0.39 |
| Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? · No | 0.900 | 0.989 | $2.18 | +$0.20 |
| Will "Wonka's The Golden Ticket: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? · No | 0.850 | 0.915 | $2.13 | +$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.41at 0.841Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
- +$1.45at 0.954Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 12 million views this week?
- +$0.83at 0.906Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
- +$0.56at 0.915Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
- +$0.50at 0.953Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 24 million views this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 18:05 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9399999905 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 18:05 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9299999812 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 18:05 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9299999812 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 18:05 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9399999905 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 17:37 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9099996553 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 17:37 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9099999908 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 17:37 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9099999908 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:56 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:56 | Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:56 | Will "Best of the Best" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:55 | Will "Best of the Best" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9199999814 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:04 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9299999812 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:02 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9299999812 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 11:02 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9199999814 | $1.98 |
| 09-26 04:45 | Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.98 |