BP2025
0x049aa4e44dcdaa109dad82503553252f4eb0b22a
- Realised P&L
- $3.2k
- Volume
- $695.6k
- Markets traded
- 262
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded262
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.506 | 0.410 | $819.99 | −$192.49 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.575 | $287.51 | +$138.79 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.067 | $165.15 | −$57.93 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.091 | $163.66 | +$152.87 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.410 | 0.305 | $152.50 | −$52.50 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.031 | $66.43 | +$28.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.0422024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House
- +$1.1kat 0.447Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?
- +$993.98at 0.006Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
- +$957.19at 0.395Will $TRUMP hit $50B FDV by noon on inauguration day?
- +$564.01at 0.030Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 01:28 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.082 | $12.24 |
| 09-13 01:25 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.025 | $3.54 |
| 09-10 23:38 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0473703704 | $3.84 |
| 09-10 23:37 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.062 | $31.00 |
| 09-07 21:18 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.048303525 | $4.65 |
| 09-06 21:24 | Washington State vs. Washington | SELL | 0.041 | $19.36 |
| 09-06 20:47 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0703179848 | $23.20 |
| 09-06 18:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $127.50 |
| 08-24 19:06 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $250.00 |
| 08-24 19:04 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0993979893 | $16.51 |
| 08-18 02:50 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $245.00 |
| 07-16 22:28 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | SELL | 0.023066264 | $18.18 |
| 07-16 22:24 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | SELL | 0.031 | $2.17 |
| 07-16 22:24 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | SELL | 0.033 | $1.32 |
| 07-16 22:22 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | SELL | 0.0323333333 | $3.88 |