0x04821f35DaC7d38849122e01A88E13b30F94a110-1733247154874
0x04821f35dac7d38849122e01a88e13b30f94a110
- Realised P&L
- $-32.78
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 167
- Open portfolio
- $40.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded167
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $29.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.996 | $10.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.27at 0.994Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 8?
- +$0.24at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 10?
- +$0.22at 0.996Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.993Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 12?
- +$0.19at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 18:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.9979999174 | $11.00 |
| 10-13 03:26 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9959999693 | $31.50 |
| 10-09 09:41 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9979999697 | $26.00 |
| 10-09 02:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $48.90 |
| 10-06 04:48 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 10-04 03:20 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.995999983 | $39.30 |
| 09-27 15:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999817 | $22.00 |
| 09-25 20:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.996 | $31.00 |
| 09-23 02:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.00 |
| 09-22 11:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.995 | $30.50 |
| 09-20 02:44 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 10:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.9973693897 | $37.50 |
| 09-05 08:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $23.20 |
| 09-04 20:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.00 |
| 08-31 13:49 | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $19.60 |