milyaruzhkova
0x0474289fd015a18bf2944a7f49cfacc99a3c8757
- Realised P&L
- $-12.98
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $2.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.650 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? · Yes | 0.756 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Trump approval >45% on July 1? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| San Marino: Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino · Andrea Pellegrino | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.27at 0.620Bruins vs. Lightning
- +$1.08at 0.640Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
- +$0.95at 0.760Will Playboi Carti release “I AM MUSIC” by June 1?
- +$0.90at 0.770Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14?
- +$0.86at 0.700Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 19:37 | Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-28 19:37 | Will Teresa Surita win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-14 19:48 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 20:08 | Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? | BUY | 0.756 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 20:07 | San Marino: Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 20:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $1.22 |
| 06-15 19:29 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 19:29 | Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 05-11 19:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299997053 | $2.00 |
| 04-05 19:22 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 04-05 19:21 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 19:20 | Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.09 |
| 03-20 19:16 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 03-20 19:16 | Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 03-20 19:13 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.42 | $1.61 |