peterg11
0x045946431aec0fbb8eb7ee11ce55a0811d749c55
- Realised P&L
- $14.69
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 415
- Open portfolio
- $78.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded415
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.950 | $28.07 | +$2.07 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.815 | $25.23 | −$0.77 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.956 | $25.14 | +$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.50at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$28.39at 0.250Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
- +$14.82at 0.252Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$14.15at 0.765Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
- +$13.26at 0.430Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 11:39 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $25.00 |
| 10-02 11:38 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $26.00 |
| 10-02 11:38 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.8399999987 | $26.00 |
| 09-18 19:01 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 18:55 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on September 30? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 18:55 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 18:52 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? | BUY | 0.5399999957 | $15.00 |
| 08-31 16:55 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31? | SELL | 0.0128726696 | $0.32 |
| 08-31 16:55 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.07 |
| 08-25 20:08 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31? | BUY | 0.1189999605 | $3.00 |
| 08-25 20:08 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? | BUY | 0.6923076683 | $20.00 |
| 08-25 20:07 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 08-25 19:53 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.7599999919 | $15.00 |
| 08-25 19:52 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.7199999981 | $15.00 |
| 08-22 18:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |