depaysement
0x042e80d446019c5a0dc661a8b5fa6e7b06cee021
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $49.0k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.964 | 0.981 | $1.6k | +$26.09 |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.975 | $1.5k | +$1.44 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.624 | 0.954 | $429.77 | +$148.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$818.48at 0.476Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?
- +$807.90at 0.470Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$243.46at 0.735Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?
- +$191.91at 0.015Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$171.00at 0.814Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 19:16 | Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.973 | $19.46 |
| 10-19 15:32 | Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.97585 | $292.75 |
| 10-16 00:54 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $1.5k |
| 07-06 00:14 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.32 | $32.00 |
| 06-19 19:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $220.00 |
| 06-16 21:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.4449411765 | $189.10 |
| 06-16 21:55 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? | SELL | 0.1520850226 | $39.39 |
| 06-15 17:15 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.0424118 | $8.48 |
| 06-13 22:23 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.2 | $80.00 |
| 06-13 22:15 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.24 | $96.00 |
| 06-11 16:51 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.015 | $105.00 |
| 06-10 21:52 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | SELL | 0.7486462036 | $46.34 |
| 06-10 21:39 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | BUY | 0.7091001 | $141.82 |
| 06-10 16:15 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6288635573 | $180.67 |
| 06-10 16:13 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.6071747498 | $39.44 |