gaiusjuliuscaesar47
0x04229c6c1ed8372c36fe7d6753441c1953ad232d
- Realised P&L
- $-4.46
- Volume
- $351.57
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $63.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.355 | $46.71 | +$3.91 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.560 | $5.96 | +$0.96 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.285 | $5.18 | −$4.82 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.410 | 0.235 | $2.87 | −$2.13 |
| Halle Berry as Storm? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.125 | $2.40 | −$2.60 |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.80 |
| Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? · Opp. | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.84 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET · Up | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.69at 0.580Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$3.54at 0.741Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
- +$3.04at 0.622Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
- +$2.86at 0.779S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?
- +$1.97at 0.836S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 14:11 | Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 10-26 14:10 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 10-20 07:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 09-27 09:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 08-16 09:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 15:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14? | BUY | 0.83 | $9.96 |
| 08-12 12:47 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12? | BUY | 0.772277214 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 12:43 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | SELL | 0.993 | $8.13 |
| 08-12 12:35 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.7329999844 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 08:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $6.26 |
| 08-12 08:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.7899999826 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 08:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 21:22 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.5699999555 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 21:07 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |