olesya-ukrainka
0x04082ee02c217b2eb14a47d3aaa95698f4db27de
- Realised P&L
- $-37.46
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $284.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $57.65 | +$0.30 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.985 | 0.978 | $56.70 | −$0.43 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? · No | 0.966 | 0.906 | $53.48 | −$3.51 |
| Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP? · No | 0.984 | 0.983 | $50.11 | −$0.08 |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? · No | 0.945 | 0.901 | $43.27 | −$2.09 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $23.65 | +$0.12 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? · Yes | 0.955 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.99at 0.857US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$2.63at 0.951Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
- +$1.98at 0.964Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.85at 0.982Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool?
- +$0.83at 0.982Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 13:02 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.984 | $21.12 |