flopyfloy
0x03a99432232dd61db25d1b4c1e3d0624de38ec2a
- Realised P&L
- $-96.10
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $18.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.067 | $18.62 | −$31.38 |
| Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$12.95 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.56 |
| Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.47at 0.291Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
- +$1.27at 0.270Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?
- +$0.43at 0.462Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027?
- +$0.24at 0.488Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?
- +$0.20at 0.830Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 17:54 | Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 07-01 12:53 | Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 06-30 18:08 | Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? | SELL | 0.38 | $27.74 |
| 06-28 19:17 | Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? | SELL | 0.34 | $6.80 |
| 06-26 05:51 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.33 |
| 06-26 05:49 | Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.47 | $25.20 |
| 06-25 15:45 | Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? | SELL | 0.38 | $5.65 |
| 06-25 14:04 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.32 | $22.72 |
| 06-24 18:50 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $4.56 |
| 06-24 18:49 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $9.50 |
| 06-24 17:53 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $15.58 |
| 06-24 08:21 | Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.39 | $6.76 |
| 06-24 05:43 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $28.89 |
| 06-23 16:47 | Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.47 | $3.23 |
| 06-18 08:18 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.26 | $27.82 |