0x038C1908567a881266D9910C898a8e963a868aAD-1725958080284
0x038c1908567a881266d9910c898a8e963a868aad
- Realised P&L
- $-5.4k
- Volume
- $107.4k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $417.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.659 | 0.560 | $417.36 | −$73.89 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$601.87 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse · Fonseca | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.00 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$104.97 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$352.00 |
| Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$365.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$972.51at 0.514Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
- +$556.81at 0.910Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$252.00at 0.370US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$110.94at 0.532Israel military response against Iran in October?
- +$56.76at 0.716Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 12:36 | Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $13.64 |
| 07-07 12:34 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $105.00 |
| 07-01 18:16 | Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.659713524 | $477.61 |
| 05-28 23:49 | Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.0361658108 | $365.31 |
| 05-07 11:13 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.71 | $142.00 |
| 05-07 11:10 | Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.51 | $510.00 |
| 05-06 21:42 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.154 | $154.00 |
| 03-30 18:58 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.119 | $1.8k |
| 03-11 05:01 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 03-06 15:38 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.126 | $16.02 |
| 03-02 17:22 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5 | $40.00 |
| 03-02 17:19 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.51 | $70.89 |
| 03-02 17:18 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.51 | $83.64 |
| 03-01 03:14 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1279537649 | $96.86 |
| 03-01 03:13 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.127 | $60.76 |