0x036dea4b83e3feff92073c70fb37c447f4cd53d0
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $60.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.105 | $3.2k | −$2.7k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.172 | 0.105 | $2.7k | −$1.7k |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.420 | 0.355 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.83at 0.026Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$1.04at 0.015Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$-1.15at 0.129Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
- +$-4.04at 0.2372026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
- +$-5.57at 0.249Blue wave in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:22 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.11 | $431.64 |
| 09-14 19:23 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 08:24 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 00:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 01:17 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 13:19 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 07:50 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 01:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 04:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 00:47 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 01:22 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 01:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 00:37 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 12:42 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 05:33 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |