0x036dea4b83e3feff92073c70fb37c447f4cd53d0
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $52.6k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.135 | $3.9k | −$1.8k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.188 | 0.145 | $2.9k | −$847.75 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.420 | 0.405 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.30at 0.025Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$1.35at 0.015Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$-0.54at 0.242Blue wave in 2026?
- +$-1.04at 0.125Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
- +$-1.69at 0.2302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:52 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 01:53 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 06:52 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 08:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 01:43 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 02:25 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.14999994 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 16:24 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.96 |
| 07-23 00:59 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 23:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1499999888 | $10.76 |
| 07-21 23:13 | Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0215451527 | $4.35 |
| 07-21 23:13 | Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.045655625 | $7.30 |
| 07-21 23:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 05:39 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 03:49 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.15 | $92.16 |
| 07-18 03:48 | Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0849607623 | $99.95 |