0x034502ea78ea696bb677f75be1477cfca6fec916
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 167
- Open portfolio
- $151.77
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded167
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.976 | 0.960 | $137.59 | −$2.37 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.982 | 0.979 | $12.86 | −$0.04 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.770 | 0.675 | $1.31 | −$0.18 |
| Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.83at 0.962Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
- +$4.55at 0.960US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.72at 0.978Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
- +$2.23at 0.984LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$2.16at 0.965GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 19:55 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7699999795 | $1.50 |
| 10-27 15:22 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9449999914 | $1.10 |
| 10-25 23:50 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.984 | $4.80 |
| 10-10 21:38 | Will XRP reach $2.60 in October? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.50 |
| 10-09 08:52 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $6.00 |
| 10-04 23:50 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $144.50 |
| 10-03 18:07 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9569999419 | $2.80 |
| 09-28 15:56 | Will XRP reach $2.00 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $127.20 |
| 09-23 10:43 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $9.00 |
| 09-22 12:20 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.20 |
| 09-11 04:32 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $4.90 |
| 09-05 09:32 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $138.00 |
| 08-27 19:13 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? | BUY | 0.9759999835 | $44.40 |
| 08-27 08:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9979999933 | $27.40 |
| 08-26 14:04 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August? | BUY | 0.9979999912 | $47.80 |