0x0340FcFfce4d0d00670212d44F364535E6E56907-1764744261318
0x0340fcffce4d0d00670212d44f364535e6e56907
- Realised P&L
- $-318.26
- Volume
- $527.6k
- Markets traded
- 145
- Open portfolio
- $15.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded145
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.190 | $13.7k | −$25.9k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.803 | 0.285 | $2.2k | −$4.1k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$764.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.0kat 0.565Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$7.2kat 0.736Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
- +$5.6kat 0.696Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
- +$2.7kat 0.437Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
- +$1.7kat 0.702Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 05:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1158891209 | $1.4k |
| 08-20 04:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3990270027 | $492.08 |
| 08-03 12:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $40.48 |
| 08-02 10:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | BUY | 0.59 | $600.65 |
| 07-31 05:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $2.3k |
| 07-28 18:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.4k |
| 07-14 13:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $567.61 |
| 07-05 09:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? | BUY | 0.76 | $620.92 |
| 07-01 11:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.992 | $6.2k |
| 06-27 20:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | BUY | 0.8799999999 | $500.00 |
| 06-27 08:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9523639112 | $6.0k |
| 06-24 17:35 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | SELL | 0.4903838491 | $984.48 |
| 06-24 17:33 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | SELL | 0.6134760538 | $286.42 |
| 06-24 17:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | SELL | 0.96 | $1.5k |
| 06-24 17:16 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.7330467572 | $500.00 |