0x033194bb4845aceb7979277569024f9367efba65
- Realised P&L
- $-310.85
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $681.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.838 | 0.945 | $225.31 | +$25.56 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No | 0.661 | 0.885 | $211.00 | +$53.31 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.305 | $159.18 | −$4.43 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.730 | 0.795 | $54.45 | +$4.45 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.130 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.085 | $7.73 | −$42.27 |
| Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.398 | $7.46 | +$2.46 |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · No | 0.200 | 0.195 | $4.88 | −$0.13 |
| Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.060 | $1.31 | −$3.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$207.05at 0.513Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$135.83at 0.647Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$92.91at 0.139Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$62.19at 0.850Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$50.97at 0.811Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 08:02 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3139999989 | $163.61 |
| 07-18 05:12 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7299999994 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.8599999996 | $198.53 |
| 07-14 20:16 | Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain? | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 19:25 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.5174999884 | $20.00 |
| 07-13 19:41 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 17:42 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.026 | $4.40 |
| 07-06 11:32 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0469999914 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 11:32 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 07-03 07:57 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 04:32 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.9474999965 | $266.20 |
| 07-03 04:12 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.8599999996 | $89.59 |
| 07-02 14:37 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.97 |
| 07-02 14:37 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.08 | $6.67 |
| 06-29 08:15 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2089999917 | $15.00 |