Megakronos
0x033194bb4845aceb7979277569024f9367efba65
- Realised P&L
- $-332.04
- Volume
- $19.6k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $895.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.403 | $503.42 | +$77.85 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No | 0.661 | 0.915 | $218.15 | +$60.46 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.324 | 0.410 | $142.21 | +$29.77 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.160 | $23.59 | −$1.41 |
| Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.215 | $4.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · No | 0.200 | 0.160 | $4.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.015 | $0.31 | −$4.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$202.98at 0.523Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$133.82at 0.647Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$92.45at 0.143Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$62.19at 0.850Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$48.03at 0.382US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 20:31 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.0699503938 | $41.57 |
| 10-26 10:42 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $41.60 |
| 10-25 22:27 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-24 20:00 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3734214653 | $62.44 |
| 10-22 12:46 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.168999999 | $25.00 |
| 10-22 08:56 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 19:02 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 19:34 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2783300186 | $50.00 |
| 10-14 07:06 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.11 | $37.79 |
| 10-14 07:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.588 | $139.23 |
| 10-02 10:39 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $15.00 |
| 10-01 15:58 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4269999977 | $52.68 |
| 10-01 07:26 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $71.52 |
| 09-29 11:55 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1499999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-29 11:54 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.013 | $11.82 |