Tilly7538
0x030f2317c4bae3e5694d4cd3aeb2672969d110db
- Realised P&L
- $-10.17
- Volume
- $95.8k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $3.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.835 | $3.32 | −$0.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.35at 0.910Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?
- +$0.23at 0.960Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?
- +$0.16at 0.950Will Equifax Inc. (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.10at 0.969Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?
- +$0.08at 0.979Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:54 | Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $3.90 |
| 08-08 14:43 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.9099999873 | $3.58 |
| 08-08 14:43 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $3.72 |
| 07-23 07:53 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9629999987 | $3.70 |
| 06-07 10:36 | Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $3.22 |
| 05-09 07:47 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.50 |
| 04-10 03:21 | Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999198 | $3.76 |
| 04-10 03:20 | Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | SELL | 0.934 | $3.76 |
| 02-24 12:00 | Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | BUY | 0.97399989 | $3.93 |
| 02-03 00:03 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or higher on February 4? | BUY | 0.9969998195 | $3.91 |
| 01-29 08:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.9869999992 | $3.86 |
| 01-12 11:04 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 10 be less than 1,800,000? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.86 |
| 12-13 04:56 | Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31? | BUY | 0.9869999972 | $3.81 |
| 11-28 11:05 | Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of November? | BUY | 0.988999798 | $3.77 |
| 11-28 10:56 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | SELL | 0.975 | $3.76 |