Polymaker12
0x030ed5868ce9b4f49f1a2bb4491c6c9af12c20eb
- Realised P&L
- $-651.90
- Volume
- $217.8k
- Markets traded
- 164
- Open portfolio
- $283.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded164
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$718.15at 0.042Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$527.27at 0.110Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$491.92at 0.169Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$381.39at 0.260US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$337.90at 0.498Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 00:49 | Will the San Francisco 49ers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? | BUY | 0.569999998 | $101.38 |
| 08-07 13:06 | Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.2894703029 | $54.43 |
| 07-19 16:23 | Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? | BUY | 0.6148975125 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 16:23 | Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? | BUY | 0.6129999935 | $30.00 |
| 06-01 20:49 | Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4999170138 | $50.00 |
| 05-30 17:30 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.2899999956 | $30.00 |
| 05-17 14:27 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2299999952 | $30.00 |
| 05-17 14:27 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5699999967 | $50.00 |
| 03-17 19:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $165.00 |
| 03-17 19:25 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.2899999991 | $200.00 |
| 03-17 19:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | BUY | 0.1199999995 | $200.00 |
| 02-24 23:12 | US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999988 | $134.00 |
| 02-06 04:30 | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 02-04 21:48 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.8299999977 | $50.00 |
| 01-26 00:45 | Patriots vs. Broncos | SELL | 0.999 | $72.39 |