MattPMP
0x02e822e85dd7fe0b9aa0fc9771aa1fa5afccd63e
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $202.8k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.193Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.110US military action against Iran by Saturday?
- +$1.3kat 0.365Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$803.99at 0.140Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$742.00at 0.120US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-04 20:26 | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.13 | $9.30 |
| 05-28 03:12 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.013 | $195.00 |
| 05-22 02:30 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.6570603412 | $328.52 |
| 05-20 17:57 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.37 | $204.05 |
| 05-20 17:44 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.018 | $88.96 |
| 05-16 22:27 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL | 0.971 | $61.35 |
| 05-14 02:59 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $21.13 |
| 05-14 02:51 | Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.75 |
| 05-06 17:29 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $7.44 |
| 04-15 19:16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $168.00 |
| 04-01 19:17 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.57 | $102.60 |
| 04-01 19:16 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 03-06 15:52 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.4 | $319.99 |
| 03-05 22:06 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.24 | $55.97 |
| 03-03 16:48 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $45.90 |