pol100u
0x02d6db350f7182192d6a11fce124dad198bd87df
- Realised P&L
- $-58.24
- Volume
- $16.6k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $54.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 8? · No | 0.991 | 0.991 | $54.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? · No | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? · No | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? · No | 0.799 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.40 |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.00at 0.750Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20?
- +$5.29at 0.810Nothing Ever Happens: January
- +$4.47at 0.730Sharks vs. Lightning
- +$3.51at 0.740Suns vs. Pistons
- +$2.99at 0.770Canadiens vs. Sabres
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 08:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9909999999 | $54.00 |
| 09-05 05:12 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.997 | $54.00 |
| 08-21 03:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.00 |
| 08-21 03:23 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.72 |
| 08-12 05:09 | Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.00 |
| 08-12 05:09 | Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.00 |
| 08-12 05:08 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 07-23 05:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 07-23 05:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-23 05:04 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July? | BUY | 0.9989999296 | $14.00 |
| 07-23 05:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 07-02 02:56 | Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.1875 | $50.40 |
| 06-25 08:29 | Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 08:29 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.1299999467 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 08:29 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.6699998437 | $3.00 |